Bears general manager Ryan Poles is predicting a “wild” Day 1 of the NFL draft on Thursday. With the number of elite players in the single digits but as many as 75 potential starters on the board, he sees fewer impediments than ever for teams to be aggressive.
Perhaps even the Bears.
“I feel really confident where we’re at,” Poles said Tuesday.
The last three years, though, that’s yielded nothing more than league average production. The Bears need to do better than that Thursday, when they’re slated to pick 10th, before making three more picks on the second day of the draft.
Despite holding the No. 1 overall pick at one point in two of his three drafts, Poles has posted pedestrian results — at least when it comes to playing time.
Players Poles drafted the last three years have taken 35.1% of the Bears’ snaps, which ranks 19th among NFL teams and third in the NFC North, according to data from Stathead.com. Players drafted in the last three years by all four NFC North teams have played 35.3% of the time, which matches the league average in that time frame.
The Buccaneers, who made a quick transition out of the Tom Brady era into a new competitive one led by Baker Mayfield, have had the highest percentage of snaps from their rookies at 47.1%. The Dolphins are at the bottom at 16%.
Poles has used every first-round pick of his career on offense. In 2022, his first year with the team, the Bears didn’t hold a first-rounder as a result of Ryan Pace’s trade for quarterback Justin Fields a year earlier.
In 2023, Poles traded out of the No. 1 spot, determined to give Fields another year to prove himself, and, after trading back to allow the Eagles to draft all-world defensive lineman Jalen Carter, drafted right tackle Darnell Wright 10th overall. Last year, Poles drafted quarterback Caleb Williams first overall — with the pick the Panthers sent him in the blockbuster deal a year earlier — and receiver Rome Odunze ninth overall.
No offensive player on the Bears’ 53-man roster took part in more plays last year than Williams, who played 98.9% of the time. Odunze ranked seventh, at 84%. Still, Bears offensive players drafted over the past three years have appeared in 31.6% of the team’s snaps, which ranks third in the NFC North and 24th in the NFL.
Playing time is a better measure of production than Pro Bowl berths, particularly for young players. So is starts.
Poles’ first- and second-round picks have started more frequently than the league-wide average. In three years, though, none of the Bears’ Round 3 picks entrenched themselves atop the depth chart — offensive tackle Kiran Amegadjie, defensive tackle Zacch Pickens and returner/receiver Velus Jones have combined to start just six games. The Bears cut Jones in the middle of last season. Bears drafted in the last three years have started 44.6% of the games they’ve played in, which ranks 18th in the NFL.
That’s not the ranking Poles wants, given how high he’s picked.
“You get three starters in a draft and a couple of other contributors, that’s a really good draft,” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said. “You get four starters, you know, that’s outstanding.”
The Bears have four cracks this week — at Picks 10, 39, 41 and 72 — to pick a starter in the first three rounds. Poles needs to do better than he has the last three years.
